WHAT JAPANESE RE-MILITARIZATION MEANS FOR INDIA

Well, the short answer is good, but we’re not here to discuss short answers. So, let’s begin.

Let’s discuss some history first. After the Japanese lost the 2nd World War, it allowed the Americans to re-write and modify its constitution into making them a pacifist nation. The article 9 of the Japanese Constitution states Japan

”forever renounces war as an instrument for settling international disputes and declares that Japan will never again maintain “land, sea, or air forces or other war potential”, in order to protect Japan’s neighbours from possible future aggression from the Japanese.”

Although this may be true, the Japanese have kept a considerable sized armed force for practical reasons, namely for China and North Korea. Infact, The Japanese Self-Defence Force (JSDF or SDF) has participated in several UN Peacekeeping missions in Golan Heights and Nepal and also have had a non-combat presence in Iraq. But two incidents suddenly seemed to have changed things. One of them being the Senkaku islands and the second being the beheading of 2 Japanese journalists in Iraq by IS. Senkaku islands are uninhabited islands near Taiwan upon which China, Japan and Taiwan claim to be their own. The tension has escalated further after potential Oil and Natural gas resources have been found near the islands. The islands are also a large fish-rich region hence its economic significance is paramount. According to Japan, China has been repeatedly trying to capture the island by force using its navy and the sovereignty of Japan needs to be protected and hence, a regular armed force needs to be raised.

Civilian Protesters trying to enter the island forcefully.

Also from the wake of the beheading of 2 journalists in Iraq openly indicates how easily Japanese citizens can be targeted without any thought of retaliation because of their article 9. These two reasons has sparked a debate upon the particular articles’ interpretation and current government trying to get the article removed or atleast altered.

Although Rearming of Japan is probably a far-fetched idea, but if by a chance this may happen there will be several major consequences to be seen in the region.

Civilians from all three countries have tried to forcefully enter the island

WHAT IT MAY MEAN FOR INDIA

There is obvious evidence of India and China trying to compete each other on economic resources, specifically on South-China Sea and the Indian Ocean. The recent stand-off between India and China on India’s Oil and Gas investment in South-China Sea with Vietnam is the most recent incident proving this. The famous theory of the ‘The String of Pearls’ has also put India on the guard. To those who don’t know, the String of Pearls is an ‘informal’ theory of what China plans to do in the Indian Ocean. It has created a set of important bases in and around India and several places in Africa to supposedly tackle India’s expansion onto the Indian Ocean. The largest among these is probably the Gwadar port of Pakistan whose operations have been given off to a Chinese state-run company. China has also invested large amounts in the Chittagong port as well as in Hambantota in Sri Lanka and ports in Sudan and Kenya as well. This is an alarming development as it puts India’s naval capabilities well within China’s strike range (Although all bases are not militarized, so to say) and Japan’s increase in Naval budget spending will certainly steer away some of China’s advances upon the Indian Ocean. This will definitely put India at a bit of ease.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO THE JAPANESE

There are 2 sides to this, obviously it’s going to hit the economy and by hit I mean drain, in today’s current economic crisis increasing investment on the defence budget will dry the coffers. Japan also simply does not have the manpower China does and any armed conflict at this point will be disastrous at worst. But the upside here is also that China will begin to get wary of Japan’s capabilities along with its alliance with the U.S and help protect its economic interests in the region. This is simply paramount. This will not only help boost the economy it will establish Japan even more so as a world player who can still flex it’s muscles if it has to. This message will reach the IS as well.

Inspecting The Guard Of Honour.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE

China has made several enemies amongst its neighbours and If Japan and India want to truly counter the Chinese they need to tap into this aspect. Countries such as Philippines, Mongolia, South Korea, Russia, Myanmar, Taiwan, Kazakhstan and Vietnam have been facing aggression by the Chinese and will willingly help India and Japan in this aspect, it depends on the hands of the respective governments on what they will decide to do, how they will decide it, and most importantly when. Because if China’s rise goes unchecked it will signal to the world on how violence and aggression can be effectively used to achieve one’s goals, which is not what countries like India would like to portray, because if this can be done, it will signal to the war-mongers towards our western borders that India can be easily undermined and subdued by aggression. There is an urgent need to check such advancements by creating strong alliances with such nations. It a watch and wait game I suppose.