Well, the short
answer is good, but we’re not here to discuss short answers. So, let’s begin.
Let’s discuss
some history first. After the Japanese lost the 2nd World War, it allowed the Americans to
re-write and modify its constitution into making them a pacifist nation. The
article 9 of the Japanese Constitution states Japan
”forever renounces
war as an instrument for settling international disputes and declares that
Japan will never again maintain “land, sea, or air forces or other war
potential”, in order to protect Japan’s neighbours from possible future
aggression from the Japanese.”
Although this
may be true, the Japanese have kept a considerable sized armed force for
practical reasons, namely for China and North Korea. Infact, The Japanese
Self-Defence Force (JSDF or SDF) has participated in several UN Peacekeeping
missions in Golan Heights and Nepal and also have had a non-combat presence in
Iraq. But two incidents suddenly seemed to have changed things. One of them
being the Senkaku islands and the second being the beheading of 2 Japanese
journalists in Iraq by IS. Senkaku islands are uninhabited islands near Taiwan
upon which China, Japan and Taiwan claim to be their own. The tension has
escalated further after potential Oil and Natural gas resources have been found
near the islands. The islands are also a large fish-rich region hence its
economic significance is paramount. According to Japan, China has been
repeatedly trying to capture the island by force using its navy and the
sovereignty of Japan needs to be protected and hence, a regular armed force
needs to be raised.
Civilian Protesters trying to enter the island forcefully.
Also from the
wake of the beheading of 2 journalists in Iraq openly indicates how easily
Japanese citizens can be targeted without any thought of retaliation because of
their article 9. These two reasons has sparked a debate upon the particular
articles’ interpretation and current government trying to get the article
removed or atleast altered.
Although
Rearming of Japan is probably a far-fetched idea, but if by a chance this may
happen there will be several major consequences to be seen in the region.
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| Civilians from all three countries have tried to forcefully enter the island |
WHAT IT MAY MEAN FOR INDIA
There is obvious
evidence of India and China trying to compete each other on economic resources,
specifically on South-China Sea and the Indian Ocean. The recent stand-off
between India and China on India’s Oil and Gas investment in South-China Sea
with Vietnam is the most recent incident proving this. The famous theory of the
‘The String of Pearls’ has also put India on the guard. To those who don’t
know, the String of Pearls is an ‘informal’ theory of what China plans to do in
the Indian Ocean. It has created a set of important bases in and around India
and several places in Africa to supposedly tackle India’s expansion onto the
Indian Ocean. The largest among these is probably the Gwadar port of Pakistan
whose operations have been given off to a Chinese state-run company. China has
also invested large amounts in the Chittagong port as well as in Hambantota in
Sri Lanka and ports in Sudan and Kenya as well. This is an alarming development
as it puts India’s naval capabilities well within China’s strike range
(Although all bases are not militarized, so to say) and Japan’s increase in
Naval budget spending will certainly steer away some of China’s advances upon
the Indian Ocean. This will definitely put India at a bit of ease.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO THE JAPANESE
There are 2
sides to this, obviously it’s going to hit the economy and by hit I mean drain,
in today’s current economic crisis increasing investment on the defence budget
will dry the coffers. Japan also simply does not have the manpower China does
and any armed conflict at this point will be disastrous at worst. But the
upside here is also that China will begin to get wary of Japan’s capabilities
along with its alliance with the U.S and help protect its economic interests in
the region. This is simply paramount. This will not only help boost the economy
it will establish Japan even more so as a world player who can still flex it’s
muscles if it has to. This message will reach the IS as well.
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Inspecting The Guard Of Honour.
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WHAT SHOULD BE DONE
China has made
several enemies amongst its neighbours and If Japan and India want to truly
counter the Chinese they need to tap into this aspect. Countries such as
Philippines, Mongolia, South Korea, Russia, Myanmar, Taiwan, Kazakhstan and
Vietnam have been facing aggression by the Chinese and will willingly help
India and Japan in this aspect, it depends on the hands of the respective governments
on what they will decide to do, how they will decide it, and most importantly
when. Because if China’s rise goes unchecked it will signal to the world on how
violence and aggression can be effectively used to achieve one’s goals, which
is not what countries like India would like to portray, because if this
can be done, it will signal to the war-mongers towards our western borders
that India can be easily undermined and subdued by aggression. There is an
urgent need to check such advancements by creating strong alliances with such
nations. It a watch and wait game I suppose.
